Well, there's a lot of buzz over the "cloud" at the moment. Apple has even got all the fanboys wetting themselves like puppies with excitement over Monday's announcement. So before Steve throws the switch on his patented "Reality Distortion Field" I thought it best to inoculate you from all the hype coming next Monday. There's a couple of options (related to Apple) and a couple of implications (for the AEC space).
Option 1: If all Apple is doing is allowing you to get to the stuff you already have - your music, videos, books, etc., all the time, where ever you are...I'm not going to be that excited. In this sense, the "cloud" is just a data center (or maybe a bunch of data centers) at the ready to distribute your stuff. And their distribution must still pass through my data provider - and that's a significant pinch point from a mobility standpoint.
Another reason I'm not that excited about Option 1 is that I don't just want to get to my stuff. And Pandora is already great for that if it's music. And Netflix is great for that if it's video. And Amazon is great for that if it's books. And Dropbox is great for hosting stuff I already own and want to access across multiple devices. But I don't want to have to go out and pay retail for all this stuff just to put it into the "cloud" so I can get to it all the time. In this case the cloud is just allowing me to get to the stuff I already know about.
What's more interesting? When the cloud helps me get to stuff that I don't already know about, which leads to Option 2.
Option 2: Apple is going head to head with the likes of Netflix and Pandora and Amazon and Dropbox and is allowing their customers to access all these proprietary catalogs of data (probably for a subscription based fee). That'd freak people out. That'd be disruptive and interesting. Except they still have to deal with the pinch point of mobile data providers. Unless Steve Jobs' "One More Thing" is that he's bought AT&T and is planning publicly execute the former CEO with a brushed aluminum and bamboo guillotine designed by Jon Ives during Monday's keynote. So just to be on the safe side, I'm investing in popcorn futures.
Yes - that last bit sound's like a crazy idea. But not really. If you listen to Dan Carlin's "Hardcore History", executing the CEO of AT&T for years of horrible customer service, monopolistic lethargism and lack of innovation would be pretty tame from a historical standpoint. But then again, Dan's not a real historian. He's really more of a faaaaan.
So let's recap:
Cloud #1: Get to the stuff I already know about and own? Meh.
Cloud #2: Get to the stuff I don't already know about or own? Disruptive and interesting.
The reason that I'd be interested in Option 2 is because I already pay for Netflix and Pandora and Dropbox and spend lots at Amazon (and the kids like the local library if only for the selection of manga). I'm a happy customer and pay monthly fees for each of those individual services and actually want them to succeed as businesses. So Apple is going to have to do something very, very interesting to convince me to move away from those guys (and not just compete on price). Vertical integration of books, movies, music and ubiquitous access? Hmmm.
Anyway - this is a lead-in to thoughts on the "cloud" in the AEC space. Lots of different companies are getting excited because their solutions are "in the cloud". And I suppose there's some advantages like ubiquitous access and lots of compute resources when you need them. But here's the problem:
If you're doing something stupid - doing it faster isn't innovation.
Moving the desktop to the cloud is an interesting evolution. It's a meaningful start. But it's not really a revolution of process if all those desktop applications are still disconnected, decoupled and fragmented. Really just more of an evolution of location than real innovation.
The challenge in the AEC space isn't that we don't have amazing standalone tools and processes. The challenge is that nothing really talks to anything else. All of us in the 1) Design to 2) Manufacture to 3) Construction to 4) Ownership domains are working from separate versions of the truth. Here's just a brief lists of some fundamental tasks that presently occur as separate and distinct efforts:
- Design: Emotive Visualization, Analysis, Iteration (Materials, Geometry, Lighting)
- Manufacturing: Level of Detail, Materials, Time to Market
- Construction: Assemblage, Critical Path Scheduling (Geometry, Proximity, Activity), Quantities
- Ownership: Infrastructure, Asset and Facility Management,
Once again, there are lots of standalone applications that help resolve the above issues. But good information also has to be timely. The "correct" answer doesn't help if it's two weeks late and based on old information. And the butterfly effects across domains remains a matter of error prone, expensive, time-consuming and often uninteresting manual coordination. The implication of "correct" answers (in one domain and disconnected toolset) aren't able to be weighed against the realities of other domains in anything close to real-time. We might think we're staring wide-eyed at integrated processes - but in reality we're closer to staring down paper towel tubes at our own design problems.
So perhaps the biggest challenge is the lack of real integration means that agnostic, "best of breed" solutions (particularly in the design arena) continues to evade us in the AEC BIM space. Technology evolves. What are you going to do when the next "Revit" comes along? Will you have painted your business into a corner by betting on a single software ecosystem? Will you force your other partners in the design space to all speak the same "language" (vendor, application, version, operating system, etc.) before they can do business with you?
Good luck. Today's heresies have a way of becoming tomorrow's dogma.
So let's recap:
Option 1: Put all these decoupled AEC applications and processes in the cloud where they remain broken and fragmented? Meh.
Option 2: Vertically integrate presently disconnected AEC applications and processes in the cloud where multiple stakeholders (designers, manufacturers, builders and owners) can simultaneously access the same version of the "truth" about a building? Disruptive and interesting.
What if we were able to leverage the cloud to simultaneously visualize and analyze design iteration with a real-world level of detail while someone else schedules the assemblages and yet another predicts what the designs will cost to own, manage and operate? Is this just too farfetched? Or to paraphrase that crazy evil guy from Lord of the Rings:
"One BIM to rule them all, One BIM to find them, One BIM to bring them all and in the cloudness bind them."
Kinda sounds like what Steve Jobs is planning for iTunes. In which case Robin Capper is going to be seriously annoyed. But it would be kinda funny in a Seinfeld episode kind of way. You see, Robin has all this trouble with iTunes, and he's from New Zealand...which is where they filmed the Lord of the....oh never mind.
But seriously - whatever happened to that crazy evil guy?
2 comments:
Phil,
To play devil's advocate. How do we deal with the "personal" issue. I think the technology issue can be solved (or rather I have no doubt it can be, if we really want it to). But how do we initiate change across such a diverse field of personalities, domain knowledge, expertise and experience. In my youthful experience to date I've quite often learned that the problem is very rarely technology, its usually a people problem. If anything "new" technology that makes us more efficient is more likely to expose the people who can't quite keep up, and the interpersonal problems that exists in our fractured industry. Call it ego, call it ignorance, call it naivety or willful ignorance but it seems to me one of the greatest challenges that lays ahead of us is actually getting people to the table, and willingly participating in a new design process and not trying to fit the square peg into a round hole.
"If you're doing something stupid - doing it faster isn't innovation."
A truly great line, my friend!
Mind if I use it :) ?
Dave
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