Like this one about the iPod.
Or this one about the iPhone.
The iPad is an answer to a lot of questions that people haven't asked. Never mind the tech blinded savvy cynic end users that want the next heavy processor ram battery brick portable multitasking workstation and as a result see the glass as (less than) half-full because the iPad sucks at being that kind of computer. A hundred years ago, these sorts scoffed at motor-cars because they wanted better horses. And these sorts will scoff at people who "lemming-like" stand in uberlines to buy an iPad.
Well, they'll scoff until they're compelled to buy one next Christmas for their wives, kids and their kid's grandparents.
The iPad isn't a computer. Nor do think it's designed to be one (any more than the iPod and iPhone). Rather, it's a complimenting - not a competing - device. It's something else. And this is important if you're Apple (or an Apple shareholder) and in the business of selling hardware. Apple isn't asking their users to choose another computer. Their asking their customers (and more importantly - a lot of new customers) to approach the internet from another point of view. So I suspect when people finally get to experience one - they'll realize it's not a computer and not meant to be. But it won't matter. It's something else that's very compelling. And they'll probably want one.
I think it's a vertical integration of a lot of devices: handheld gaming, DVD players, web browsing and email, etc.
I think it'll be popular with kids; look for books, homework, painting/drawing, school and learning focused apps and movies in the backs of minivans.
I think it'll be popular with teenagers as a collaborating, communicating device at home and school; media, music, video, Facebook, blogging, idea sharing, idea presenting, note taking and beats the heck out of carrying around a backpack full of books. And because it'll be a compelling status symbol.
I think it'll be popular with parents and their parents. People who don't want or need another laptop. But still want to be able to "get to their stuff".
I think it'll be popular with grandparents that don't want or need a net book - but want a rich, portable, user friendly, media web based experience. Plenty of on-board storage and plenty more in the cloud.
I think it'll be popular with road warriors: email, reading, podcasts, video, note taking, ideating, twittering and presenting.
I think it'll be popular with developers that want to create cloud-based thin clients and purpose focused tools.
I think it'll be popular with Apple share holders.
The iPad isn't a computer. Nor is the iPod. Nor is the iPhone. And no one else is making anything like it. And like the iPod and iPhone - other people will try. And just about the time they get it right (maybe...ahem...Google Android...cough) Apple will have come along and redefined the paradigm.
That's my prediction.
7 comments:
Some funny stuff from fake steve.
http://www.fakesteve.net/
I want to like the ipad - I really do. I've got an iphone and a mac. I do not have a macbook and have at times thought of getting one, but don't really have the "need" for one. i was excited about the ipad filling that gap. A couple turn-offs for me. No flash, which means no hulu, etc. (how can it be the "ultimate" internet device when it can't do flash) No webcam, which means no video chats with mom (like the touch, this is such an obvious "we'll get them to buy it twice" feature). No hdmi-out which means no using it as an internet/media hub for the tv (unfortunately Apple has yet to get its act together with the ATV). No mouse which means serious productivity is limited (the touch screen will get tiring really quickly after long periods of time). I know, I know, it's obviously not geared towards me. But it seems like a *lot* of people are saying the same things. My "prediction" is that while not a "flop", it's not going to enjoy nearly the ubiquitous success of the iPod/iPhone or macbook.
The fake steve post more specifically i meant to link:
http://www.fakesteve.net/2010/01/live-blog-will-be-here.html
Apple is in the business of fun. Can you say the same of any other "computer" company? Good observations.
I'm trashing my Google G1 Phone when the T-Mobile contract runs out. What a joke. Oh, and open-source apps without control at all over who is allowed to publish = 50% failure rate of Android Market. Wish I'd bought an iPhone.
Make no mistake, the Kindle hasn't got a chance. Pre-ordering the iPad as soon as possible.
But, when cut don't you bleed apple juice? :)
Well, then. I think I'm starting to see the light at the BEGINNING of the tunnel :)
I’ve been giving a bit more thought to this whole iPad thing. I’ve already expressed my initial disappoint with what the iPad product is *now* as it would suit my needs, but aside from the specifics of the current iteration, or any other tablet, I wonder if the tablet will be considered a disruptive technology ten or twenty years from now.
The PC, the Internet, and the cell phone were all major disruptive technologies that really changed the world we live in and our perception of it (while often displacing older “technologies”).
So is the tablet (or the iPad if you want) a major disruptive technology, a minor one, or just an evolution of an existing one?
One could argue that for the typical consumer, the iPad is just an evolution of the smart phone in the same way the iPhone is just an evolution of the cell phone. Or it’s an evolution of the laptop. In either case, I don’t see it as a disruptive technology (yet).
One could argue that it’s all about the “’kids”... where the iPad may end up being a disruptive technology is in education.
The notion of students carrying around a bunch of printed textbooks already strikes me as ridiculously old fashion. I was wondering why I couldn’t have an “electronic copy” of my textbooks when I was in high school in the late ‘80s. Over twenty years later, aside from the cell phones, my impression is that “education” hasn’t changed much. But while a number of people have suggested that every kid could have an iPad that would hold all their text books, that would really only be a minor disruptive technology. What would make it a major disruptive technology is if it revolutionizes the very nature of what a textbook is and in turn, the curriculum itself.
I am not hating on apple, but Tosh.O is. See how he liked it.
http://gadgetblips.dailyradar.com/video/tosh-o-with-an-ipad/
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