Ecosystems vs Technologies

Technology graveyards are littered with amazing stuff that didn't survive because of two really important dynamics: 1. Time to market: By the time your well-intentioned and nearly comparable product arrives - the other guy has already created a well-established paradigm. In the process they've captured important first to market mindshare. Your hopefully competitive technology will constantly be compared to the first to market and established paradigm. And if your solution is not overwhelmingly and compellingly better - it'll be viewed as mediocre and fail.

The first iPod wasn't a technology breakthrough. It was basically a 5gb(!) hard-drive and lightweight OS. The screen was crap. But it captured people's imagination and the learning curve was really, really shallow. But most importantly, it was 2001. By the time MFST brought the Zune to market it was just over 5 years later. By this time the market had already had bought into the "carry a bunch of songs in your pocket" paradigm with other products - and Apple customers were overall pretty satisfied.

So why would a customer "upgrade" to a comparable technology with no compelling event? They won't. So what compelling event moved people away from the iPod? Less than a year later the iPhone launched (2007). So while MSFT was making this thing to carry a much of stuff in your pocket, AAPL let you carry the internet in your pocket. The iPhone was a compelling event, indicating that Apple is about the only company that can make Apple's technology obsolete.

Note: Making another company's technology obsolete is an incredibly hard, uphill battle. But having the leadership force-of-will to make your own technology obsolete? This is incredibly rare. Microsoft had great technology, but Apple had great vision.

Lesson: Don't wait till your technology is perfected. Get it to market before it's ready. Then push your team to rapidly release updates and improvements ahead of expectations. Before a color screen. Before copy/paste.

2. Lack of ecosystem: Does your new technology do something really cool? BFD. Your great technology will fail in the market if your competition has incredibly well-honed, integrated and elegant distribution because their sum is greater than your parts. Zune Marketplace? Well, sure - as you would expect, there's stuff to buy, watch or listen to on your Zune from an online store.

ZZZzzzz...It's not enough to evolve new models of delivery around old models of content. You have to create revolutionary models of delivery around new models of content. Microsoft was doing the first and Apple was doing the second.

By 2006, Microsoft was trying to create ecosystems around existing media ecosystems: TV, Music, etc. But Apple had already well-established distribution around some amazing and compelling content: podcasts (along with the old stuff). So while MFST was making something old to do something old, APPL was humming along creating something new to do something new.

All of the conventional content that could be brought to you by MSFT wasn't nearly as interesting as an episode of TikiBarTV (here's the very first episode from 2005). When Tiki Bar TV first started out, it had really pretty poor production and sounded like the mic was in the corner of the room at the bottom of a metal trashcan. But it was damn funny. And it had Lala.

Microsoft Zune + Regularly Scheduled Programming vs. iPod + Lala? No contest.

Lessson: Don't be satisfied to do an old thing a new way. Rather than fight over existing marketshare, create new markets and force others to compete on your terms.

So that's your lesson for today: if you build a better mousetrap the world won't beat a path to your door. You have to capture mind-share and create new modes of distribution for your new idea.

What happens to the mouse once it's caught? Can I share mouse-catching ideas with other mouse catchers? Who would I rather watch dance in a mouse suit? Steve Balmer or Lala?

No contest.